False reporting of sexual assault is often misrepresented to be somewhere between 2 and 10% of total reports. As previously suggested by many (i.e., Bradford R. 2021, Johnson K. et al. 2017, Scarborough R. 2018), this is a misleading estimate and simply not the total truth. The implications of this on public perception, policy-making, and the lives of those involved can be detrimental. Unfortunately, the more this misleading estimate is repeated, the more likely it will be accepted as true. The assumption that false accusations are rare can lead policy-makers, investigators, and adjudicators to create biased procedures for judging accusations. Inevitably, this results in innocent people getting held responsible for allegations of sexual misconduct.

The truth is, there is no reliable way to determine the extent of untrue or wrongful allegations, let alone determine that between 2 and 10% of accusations are false. The 2% statistic seems to have originated from a single judicial speech in 1974 (Cook L. 1974) that was referenced in Susan Brownmiller's book about rape (Brownmiller S. 1976). Since then, almost every authority making the 2% claim has relied on this book directly or indirectly or by citing a secondary source that relies on Brownmiller's estimate (Greer E. 2000). The 1974 data reported by Brownmiller appears to be based on an estimate by one police unit, not an empirically rigorous peer-reviewed study (Greer E. 2000). Most of the data used to determine the commonly reported 8 to 10% statistic is the result of reviewing police rape reports that were designed to evaluate the evidence for possible prosecution, not to determine whether or not the allegations were wrongful (Kelly L. et al. 2005, Lea S. et al. 2003, Lisak D. et al. 2010, Spohn C. et al. 2014). Since those studies were published, one of the authors, David Lisak, has been widely criticized for his shoddy research on campus rape (LeFauve L. 2015, Soave R. 2015).

Police Report Studies

Most police departments classify rape allegations into one of many categories labeled with a variety of terms, such as false, baseless, unfounded, cleared, and inconclusive. Many of these accusations could reflect untrue or wrongful accusations (i.e., proven to be false or lack substance or evidence of a crime). For example, an allegation can be classified as false if proven to be deliberately or maliciously fabricated. Baseless may be used to classify allegations that were not deliberately fabricated (i.e., based on cognitive bias or misremembering) and lack evidence of a crime; unfounded, which can include false and baseless, may be used when there is a lack of substance to indicate a crime, and inconclusive, which can consist of both true and false allegations, is often used when the case is unresolvable and lacks evidence to convict or prove false (IACP 2005, FBI 2004). Many police studies strictly limit the definition of a false allegation to only those proven to be deliberately fabricated (classified as false) (i.e., Lea S. et al. 2003, Lisak D. 2010, Spohn C. et al. 2014). As a result, the term false in those studies most likely does not capture a complete picture of wrongful allegations. And let's be honest: whether wrongful accusations are deliberate, misguided, or misremembered is irrelevant to those accused and innocent. They have been implicated for something they did not do and will suffer the traumatic consequences.

Proactive Studies

When methods designed to identify false rape allegations are employed to offset the weaknesses in reviewing police reports, the rate has been estimated to be between 41 and 60% (Jordan et al. 2004, Kanin E. et al. 1994, McDowell C. P. 1985). However, these studies also have shortcomings, such as small sample sizes and debatable research methods, that likely create conditions that fail to uncover the true extent of wrongful rape allegations.

Title IX Reports and Campus Tribunals

Existing police studies on false rape allegations are not reliable predictions of false allegations of sexual misconduct reported to campus Title IX administrators. Such reports are evaluated very differently on campuses than by police and our courts of law. For example, while many police studies strictly limit allegations to those classified as proven false, campus administrators adopt standards that do not require them to prove that an allegation is false, or valid for that matter, only that the allegation is believed to be "more likely than not" (Johnson K. et al. 2017). How many campus allegations are provable, false, or true remains unknown. However, evidence indicates that 30% or more of accusations will result in wrongful decisions in campus tribunals when the adopted standard of proof is a preponderance of the evidence (Villasenor J. 2016). To further complicate the matter, there are very little or no disincentives for making false sexual assault allegations on campus, such as shame and fear of repercussions, which deter individuals from reporting false allegations to law enforcement. Disincentives have been replaced by an almost exalted victim status, for which accusers are showered with attention and media recognition (Soave R. 2015). On top of this, some of what can be considered sexual misconduct on many campuses would not be regarded as criminal in most jurisdictions (Craddock C. 2015, Soave R. 2016, Wolfinger N. 2020). Under these conditions, one might consider the rate of wrongful allegations to be much higher on campuses than that reported to the police. To date, however, there are no reliable studies evaluating wrongful sexual assault allegations reported to campus officials, and extrapolating results from police studies to campus activity would be like comparing apples to oranges.

What Can We Conclude?

At present, we don't have ample objective studies designed to determine the rate of wrongful reporting of sexual assault. We are relying on imprecise studies that analyze police reports of rape. The only conclusion we can safely draw from these studies is that wrongful allegations of rape are reported to police at an unknown rate. At best, the 2-10% statistic is the minimum rate of reporting false claims to police, while the maximum rate remains unknown. Furthermore, there are no reliable studies on wrongful sexual assault allegations reported to campus Title IX officials, and therefore, this rate also remains unknown.

More importantly, broadcasting statistics that are inaccurate and could incentivize administrators to create biased procedures that punish innocent individuals is cruel and unacceptable in a just society (including campuses) that respects human rights. The only way to identify the guilty while protecting the innocent from the injustices of wrongful allegations is to determine the truth in each case through the rigorous application of due process.

References

Evidence of Wrongful Sexual Misconduct or Assault Allegations

As stated before, whether wrongful allegations are deliberate, misguided, or misremembered is irrelevant to those accused and innocent. They have been implicated for something they did not do and will suffer the traumatic consequences.

1. Innocence Project. Numerous innocent people have been wrongfully accused and convicted of crimes and then exonerated based on new evidence, such as DNA. As of 2020, the vast majority of DNA exonerations (about 91%) were for those wrongfully accused and convicted of sexual assault. Although these individuals were innocent of the crime, approximately 25% confessed, and 10% pleaded guilty. Research Resources - Innocence Project  INNOCENCE PROJECT: DNA EXONERATIONS, 1989-2014: REVIEW OF DATA AND FINDINGS FROM THE FIRST 25 YEARS

2. National Criminal Justice Reference Service. In a National Institute of Justice research report, the authors revealed that every year since 1989, close to 25% of sexual assault cases (referred to FBI with DNA evidence) excluded the wrongfully accused primary suspect through forensic DNA testing. Convicted by Juries, Exonerated by Science: Case Studies in the Use of DNA Evidence to Establish Innocence After Trial

3. The National Registry of Exonerations. As of February 2024, the most common contributing factors to wrongful convictions are false allegations and perjury, making up 64% of such cases. Of those accused of sexual assault, false accusations and perjury were a contributing factor in almost half, 45%, of the cases. Exonerations Contributing Factors By Crime

4. FBI Uniform crime reports. The prevalence rate of false and baseless allegations of rape was found to be at least five times higher when compared to other offenses, such as theft or murder, and second only to robbery. De Zutter A., Horselenberg R., van Koppen P.J. 2017. The Prevalence of False Allegations of Rape in the United States from 2006-2010. Journal of Forensic Psychology 2 (2), 119.

5. The Association of Title IX Administrators (ATIXA). In an interview in 2020, Brett Sokolow, the ATIXA president, stated that up to "40 or 50% of allegations of sexual assault" on campus could be "baseless," particularly when alcohol was involved. Bernstein R. December 16, 2020. Legal experts say Biden's pushing ahead to the Obama past on campus rape could be a mistake, Real Clear Wire. Legal experts say Biden's pushing ahead to the Obama past on campus rape could be a mistake | National | thecentersquare.com.

6. Law, Probability, and Risk. John Villasenor demonstrated that up to 30% of allegations would result in wrongful decisions when the burden of proof is a preponderance of the evidence. In other words, up to 30% of those found responsible or guilty could actually be innocent and accused wrongfully. Furthermore, this outcome is probably much higher than 30% in campus tribunals that lack many of the basic due process features designed to ensure the accuracy of decisions under this standard of proof. Villasenor J. 2016. A probabilistic framework for modeling false Title IX' convictions' under the preponderance of the evidence standard. Law, Probability and Risk, 15 (4), 223–237. 

7. Title IX For All. Hundreds of lawsuits have been filed due to wrongful allegations, biased investigations, or unjust adjudications in campus tribunals. Title IX Lawsuits Database  

8. Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) Studies. Numerous studies indicate that false IPV allegations (including sexual violence) are common and, in some studies, considered to be as high as 50%. The predominant motives for making false IPV claims were to punish or gain control over the victim, a ploy often used to gain an advantage in divorce and custody disputes. References

9. Family law attorneys. Such attorneys have revealed that it is not uncommon for a spouse to make false allegations of sexual misconduct or domestic violence in an attempt to gain leverage in divorce proceedings. Below is a small sample of such attorneys. i. Sexual Allegations In a Divorce | Tad Nelson & Associates, ii. How False Allegations Of Sexual Assault Can Affect The Outcome Of Divorce, iii. First Degree Sexual Assault and Other False Allegations Men Face in Divorce, iv. How Domestic Violence Allegations can Affect Divorce | New Jersey Family Law Lawyers, vi. How To Navigate False Allegations in Divorce - Brown Goldstein Levy

10. News or personal stories of false or wrongful accusations. Below is a small sample of cases. i. How a False Accusation Almost Ruined my Life, ii. Wrongfully Jailed For Rape As A Teen, He Now Helps Others Falsely Convicted | Megyn Kelly TODAY, iii. Man wrongfully accused of rape exonerated after 5 years in jail, iv. College student falsely accused of rape speaks out, v. Elizabeth Coast sentenced for false sexual assault claim, vi. Boy's life is ruined after girls falsely accuse him of sexual assault, vii. Falsely Accused of Rape: 'My Two-Year Nightmare' | This Morning, viii. I Was Fired Under False Allegations But I Have Proof That She Is Lying - Reddit Stories, ix. Nick Wolfinger's comments at the Department of Education's public hearing on Title IX, June 9, 2021

11. Families Advocating for Campus Equality. Our experience tells us that there is a heightened risk on U.S. college campuses, whatever the overall percentage of wrongful allegations. We have helped thousands of individuals over the past 10+ years deal with wrongful accusations in campus tribunals. Trends in FACE Contacts Accused of Misconduct
    
    

The only way to identify the guilty while protecting the innocent from the injustices of wrongful allegations is to determine the truth in each case through the rigorous application of due process.